Activity Based Travel Demand Modeling

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Activity Based Travel Demand Modeling for Metropolitan Areas in Texas Data Sources Sample Formation and Estimation Results Chandra R Bhat Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan Jessica Y Guo Research Report 4080 3 Research Project 0 4080 Activity Based Travel Demand Modeling for Metropolitan Areas in Texas Conducted for the

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Activity Based Travel Demand Modeling,for Metropolitan Areas in Texas. Data Sources Sample Formation and Estimation Results. Chandra R Bhat,Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan,Jessica Y Guo. Research Report 4080 3,Research Project 0 4080, Activity Based Travel Demand Modeling for Metropolitan Areas in Texas. Conducted for the,Texas Department of Transportation. in cooperation with the,U S Department of Transportation.
Federal Highway Administration,Center for Transportation Research. The University of Texas at Austin,September 2002,Disclaimers. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are responsible for the. facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein The contents do not necessarily reflect the. official views or policies of the Federal Highway Administration or the Texas Department of. Transportation This report does not constitute a standard specification or regulation. There was no invention or discovery conceived or first actually reduced to practice in the. course of or under this contract including any art method process machine manufacture. design or composition of matter or any new and useful improvement thereof or any variety of. plant which is or may be patentable under the patent laws of the United States of America or any. foreign country,NOT INTENDED FOR CONSTRUCTION,BIDDING OR PERMIT PURPOSES. Chandra R Bhat,Research Supervisor,P E License Texas No 88971. Acknowledgments, Research performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the U S.
Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration. Table of Contents,1 Introduction 1,2 Conceptual Frameworks 3. 2 1 Conceptual Framework for Medium Term Choices 3. 2 1 1 Housing 4,2 1 2 Work 6,2 1 3 Automobile holdings 8. 2 1 4 Summary 8, 2 2 Conceptual Framework for Short Term Choices 11. 2 2 1 The generation allocation model system 11,2 2 2 The pattern level model system 13. 2 2 3 The tour and stop level model system 15,3 1 Activity Travel Survey 19.
3 2 Public Use Microdata Samples 19,3 3 Land Use and Level of Service Data 20. 3 4 Data Cleaning and Sample Formation for Medium Term Choices 21. 3 5 Data Cleaning and Sample Formation for Short Term Choices 21. 4 Analysis Frameworks 23,4 1 Analysis Framework for Medium Term Choices 23. 4 1 1 Residential mobility model 25,4 1 2 Residential tenure choice model 26. 4 1 3 Residential location choice model 26,4 1 4 Labor participation model 27. 4 1 5 Employment mobility model 27,4 1 6 Employment arrangement model 27.
4 1 7 Employment location choice model 28,4 1 8 Vehicle ownership level model 28. 4 2 Analysis Framework for Short Term Choices 29,4 2 1 The generation allocation model system 29. 4 2 2 The pattern level model system 31,4 2 3 The tour level model system 32. 4 2 4 The stop level model system 34,5 Empirical Results Medium term Choices 37. 5 1 Residential Mobility Model 37,5 2 Residential Tenure Choice Model 37.
5 3 Residential Location Choice Model 38,5 4 Labor Participation Model 40. 5 5 Employment Mobility Model 41,5 6 Employment Arrangement Model 41. 5 7 Employment Location Choice Model 45,5 8 Vehicle Ownership Model 45. 6 Empirical Results Short Term Choices 47,6 1 The Generation Allocation Model System 47. 6 1 1 Decision to go to work work based duration and work start times 47. 6 1 2 Decision to go to school school based duration and school start times 54. 6 1 3 Household activity generation 57, 6 1 4 Activity allocation for multiadult households 60.
6 1 5 Decision to participate in other activity 62. 6 2 The Pattern Level Model System 64,6 2 1 Work to home commute characteristics 64. 6 2 2 Home to work commute characteristics 69,6 2 3 Worker s decision to make tours 73. 6 2 4 Number of tours for nonworker 77,6 3 The Tour Level Model System 78. 6 3 1 Mode choice for a tour 78,6 3 2 Number of stops in a tour 81. 6 3 3 Tour duration 84,6 3 4 Home stay duration before the tour 87.
6 4 The Stop Level Model System 89,6 4 1 Activity type of the stop 89. 6 4 2 Activity duration 95,6 4 3 Travel time to activity 97. 6 4 4 Activity location 100,7 Summary 101,References 103. List of Figures, Figure 2 1 Dimensions of medium term household decisions 4. Figure 2 2 Path diagram illustrating factors influencing household medium term. choices 10, Figure 2 3 Conceptual framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns.
generation allocation model system 12, Figure 2 4 Conceptual framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns. pattern level model system 14, Figure 2 5 Conceptual framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns. tour and stop level model system 16, Figure 3 1 Data cleaning and sample formation short term activity pattern models 22. Figure 4 1 Choice hierarchy for no worker households 24. Figure 4 2 Choice hierarchy for single worker households 24. Figure 4 3 Choice hierarchy for dual worker households 25. Figure 4 4 Analysis framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns. generation allocation model 30, Figure 4 5 Analysis framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns. pattern level models 32, Figure 4 6 Analysis framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns tour.
level models for workers 33, Figure 4 7 Analysis framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns tour. level model for nonworkers 34, Figure 4 8 Analysis framework for modeling daily activity travel patterns Stop. level model system 35, Figure 6 1 Continuous time baseline hazard for work based duration 51. Figure 6 2 Continuous time baseline hazard for work start time 54. List of Tables,Table 3 1 Information provided in PUMS 20. Table 5 1 Probability distribution of household mobility by tenure and type of. Table 5 2 Observed market shares of tenure choice 37. Table 5 3 Estimation results of the tenure choice model 38. Table 5 4 Estimation results of the residential location models 39. Table 5 5 Estimation results of labor participation model 40. Table 5 6 Estimation results of the work schedule choice model for part time. workers 42, Table 5 7 Estimation results of the work schedule choice model for full time.
workers 43, Table 5 8 Estimation results of the employment location choice model 45. Table 5 9 Estimation results of the vehicle ownership models 46. Table 6 1 Worker s decision to make out of home work activities 48. Table 6 2 Discrete period sample hazard for work based duration 50. Table 6 3 Covariate effects hazard model for work based duration 51. Table 6 4 Discrete time sample hazard for work start time 52. Table 6 5 Covariate effects model for work start time 53. Table 6 6 Student s decision to go to school 55,Table 6 7 School based duration 56. Table 6 8 School start time 57, Table 6 9 Sample shares household activity participation 58. Table 6 10 Household activity generation model 59, Table 6 11 Individual s decision to participate in an activity given household s. decision to participate in the activity 61, Table 6 12 Activity allocation models for multiadult households 61.
Table 6 13 Decision of an adult to participate in other activities 63. Table 6 14 Availability and sample shares for work to home commute mode 65. Table 6 15 Work to home commute mode choice model 66. Table 6 16 Sample shares for number of work to home commute stops 67. Table 6 17 Number of work to home commute stops 68. Table 6 18 Work to home commute duration 69, Table 6 19 Cross tabulation of home to work commute mode against work to. home commute mode 70, Table 6 20 Home to work commute mode choice models 70. Table 6 21 Number of home to work commute stops 71. Table 6 22 Home to work commute duration 73, Table 6 23 Sample shares Worker s decision to make tours 74. Table 6 24 Decision of workers to make tours 76,Table 6 25 Number of tours made by nonworkers 77. Table 6 26 Sample shares for tour mode workers and nonworkers 78. Table 6 27 Tour mode choice model for workers 80,Table 6 28 Tour mode choice for nonworkers 81.
Table 6 29 Sample shares number of stops in a tour for workers and nonworkers 82. Table 6 30 Number of stops in a tour for workers 83. Table 6 31 Number of stops in a tour for nonworkers 84. Table 6 32 Tour duration for workers 86,Table 6 33 Tour duration for nonworkers 87. Table 6 34 Home stay duration before a tour for workers 88. Table 6 35 Home stay duration before a tour for nonworkers 89. Table 6 36 Availability of activity type alternatives 90. Table 6 37 Sample shares 90, Table 6 38 Activity type choice model for workers 92. Table 6 39 Activity type choice model for nonworkers 94. Table 6 40 Activity duration model for workers 96, Table 6 41 Activity duration model for nonworkers 97. Table 6 42 Travel time to activity model for workers 99. Table 6 43 Travel time to activity model for nonworkers 100. 1 Introduction, Since the beginning of civilization the viability and economic success of communities have. been to a major extent determined by the efficiency of the transportation infrastructure To. make informed transportation infrastructure planning decisions planners and engineers have to. be able to forecast the response of transportation demand to changes in the attributes of the. transportation system and changes in the attributes of the people using the transportation system. Travel demand models are used for this purpose specifically travel demand models are used to. predict travel characteristics and usage of transport services under alternative socioeconomic. scenarios and for alternative transport service and land use configurations. The need for realistic representations of behavior in travel demand modeling is well. acknowledged in the literature This need is particularly acute today as emphasis shifts from. evaluating long term investment based capital improvement strategies to understanding travel. behavior responses to shorter term congestion management policies such as alternate work. schedules telecommuting and congestion pricing The limitations of the traditional statistically. oriented trip based approach in evaluating demand management policies Gordon et al 1988. Lockwood et al 1994 Hanson 1980 has led to the emergence of a more behaviorally oriented. activity based approach to demand analysis, The activity based approach to travel demand analysis views travel as a derived demand.
derived from the need to pursue activities distributed in space Jones et al 1990 Axhausen et al. 1992 The approach adopts a holistic framework that recognizes the complex interactions in. activity and travel behavior The conceptual appeal of this approach originates from the. realization that the need and desire to participate in activities is more basic than the travel that. some of these participations may entail, Activity based travel analysis has seen considerable progress in the past couple of. decades Several studies have focused on the participation of individuals in single activity. episodes along with one or more accompanying characteristics of the episode such as duration. location or time window of participation The effect of household interdependencies on. individual activity choice is represented in these models in the form of simple measures such as. presence of a working spouse number of adults and household structure Significant attempts. have also been made to broaden the scope of earlier studies to examine activity episode patterns. that is multiple activity episodes and their sequence over a particular time span typically a day. Some of these studies focus only on activity episode scheduling and consider the generation of. activity episodes and their attributes as exogenous inputs Other studies analyze both activity. episode generation and scheduling yielding more comprehensive activity travel models Such. comprehensive models can potentially replace the conventional trip based travel demand. models see Guo and Bhat 2001 for a detailed review of state of the art activity based. The current project aims to advance the state of the art in daily activity travel modeling. It represents one of the first attempts to comprehensively model the activity travel patterns of. workers as well as nonworkers in a household The activity travel system will take as input. various land use sociodemographic activity system and transportation level of service. attributes It will provide as output the complete daily activity travel patterns for each individual. in the household, Within the broader context of the research objective of the project this report presents. frameworks developed for modeling the daily activity travel decisions and longer term. household decisions such as household location and auto ownership Detailed analysis. frameworks are presented for developing models for the Dallas Fort Worth DFW area The. empirical results for the model systems estimated are discussed. This report is organized as follows Chapter 2 discusses conceptual frameworks. developed for modeling short term activity travel decisions and medium term household. choices Chapter 3 presents the sources of data used in model estimations and provides details on. the data cleaning and sample formation procedures Chapter 4 presents analysis frameworks. developed for estimating models for the DFW area Chapter 5 presents details on the empirical. models developed for medium term household choices model systems and Chapter 6 provides. the empirical results for the short term activity travel decisions Chapter 7 provides the. summary and conclusions,2 Conceptual Frameworks, Modeling medium term household decisions and short term individual activity travel decisions. were identified as a key objective of this research effort In this chapter detailed conceptual. frameworks are provided for modeling these decisions The framework for modeling medium. term decisions is discussed first followed by the approach for modeling short term decisions. 2 1 Conceptual Framework for Medium Term Choices, The medium term choices made by households and their members have a profound impact on. individuals daily activity and travel patterns These choices including housing work and. automobile decisions are also at the heart of understanding our urban structure Clark and. Withers 1999 Each of these three medium term choices further encompasses many choice. dimensions Those that are considered important to the modeling of land use and transportation. interaction are listed in Figure 2 1 Drawing from past studies of relevance the subsequent. sections discuss these choice dimensions in detail The discussion is more in depth than that. presented in the earlier report and represents the foundation for developing our analysis.

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