Report CopyRight/DMCA Form For : 2018 Meteor Shower Calendar Imo
It is not a true shower at all hence it has no IAU shower number but is rather a region of sky in which a number of variably if weakly active minor showers have their radiants Until 2006 attempts were made to de ne speci c showers within this complex but this often proved very di cult for visual observers to achieve IMO video results have shown why because even instrumentally
2 IMO INFO 2 17, The heart of the Calendar is the Working List of Visual Meteor Showers Table 5 which is. continuously updated so that it is the single most accurate listing available anywhere today. for visual meteor observing Nevertheless it is a Working List which is subject to further. modifications based on the best data we had at the time the Calendar was written Observers. should always check for later changes noted in the IMO s journal WGN or on the IMO website. Vice versa we are always interested to receive information whenever you find any anomalies To. allow for better correlation with other meteor shower data sources we give the complete shower. designation including the codes taken from IAU s Meteor Data Center listings. Video meteor observations allow us to detect weak sources An increasing number of confirmed. radiants provides us with more possibilities to establish relations between meteoroid streams. and their parent objects Some of the sources may produce only single events but no annual. recurring showers such as for example the June Bootids and the October Draconids From. stream modelling calculations we know that one meteoroid stream may cause several meteor. showers and that a stream may be related to more than one parent object. Observing techniques which allow the collection of useful shower data include visual video and. still imaging along with radar and radio forward scatter methods Visual and video data allow. rate and flux density calculations as well as determination of the particle size distribution in. terms of the population index r or the mass index s Multi station camera setups provide us. with orbital data essential for meteoroid stream investigations Showers with radiants too near. the Sun for observing by the various optical methods can be detected by forward scatter radio. or back scatter radar observations although attempts with optical observations can be useful. too Some of the showers are listed in Table 7 the Working List of Daytime Meteor Showers. The IMO s aims are to encourage collect analyze and publish combined meteor data obtained. from sites all over the globe to improve our understanding of the meteor activity detectable. from the Earth s surface For best effects it is recommended that all observers should follow. the standard IMO observing guidelines when compiling information and submit those data. promptly to the appropriate Commission for analysis contact details are at the end of the. Calendar Many analyses try to combine data obtained by more than one method extending. the ranges and coverage but also to calibrate results from different techniques Thanks to the. efforts of the many IMO observers worldwide since 1988 that have done this we have been able. to achieve as much as we have to date including keeping the shower listings vibrant This is not. a matter for complacency however since it is solely by the continued support of many people. across the planet that our attempts to construct a better and more complete picture of the. near Earth meteoroid flux can proceed, Timing predictions are included below and on all the more active night time and daytime shower. maxima as reliably as possible However it is essential to understand that in many cases such. maxima are not known more precisely than to the nearest degree of solar longitude In addition. variations in individual showers from year to year mean past returns are only a guide as to when. even major shower peaks can be expected As noted already the information given here may be. updated and added to after the Calendar has been published Some showers are known to show. particle mass sorting within their meteoroid streams so the radar radio still imaging video. and visual meteor maxima may occur at different times from one another and not necessarily. just in those showers The majority of data available are for visual shower maxima so this must. be borne in mind when employing other observing techniques. However and whenever you are able to observe we wish you all a most successful year s work. and very much look forward to receiving your data whose input is possible via the online form. on the IMO s website www imo net Clear skies,IMO INFO 2 17 3. 2 Antihelion Source, The Antihelion Source ANT is a large roughly oval area of about 30 in right ascension and. 15 in declination centred about 12 east of the solar opposition point on the ecliptic hence. its name It is not a true shower at all hence it has no IAU shower number but is rather a. region of sky in which a number of variably if weakly active minor showers have their radiants. Until 2006 attempts were made to define specific showers within this complex but this often. proved very difficult for visual observers to achieve IMO video results have shown why because. even instrumentally it was impossible to define distinct and constantly observable radiants for. many of the showers here Thus we recommend observers simply to identify meteors from these. streams as coming from the ANT alone Apart from this we have been able to retain the July. August Capricornids and particularly the Southern Aquariids as apparently distinguishable. showers separate from the ANT Later in the year the Taurid showers dominate the activity. from the Antihelion region meaning the ANT should be considered inactive while the Taurids are. underway from early September to early December To assist observers a set of charts showing. the location for the ANT and any other nearby shower radiants is included here to complement. the numerical positions of Table 6 while comments on the ANT s location and likely activity. are given in the quarterly summary notes,3 January to March. The year starts with the Quadrantid 010 QUA peak for the northern hemisphere observers. on January 3 just after full Moon The peak time based on the previous returns should be close. Favourable conditions will allow monitoring the Ursae Minorids 404 GUM as well as. late parts of the long lasting December Leonis Minorids 032 DLM which can be traced. until early February The southern hemisphere s Centaurids 102 ACE in February and. the possible minor Normids 118 GNO of March can be well observed. ANT Jan Mar, The ANT s radiant centre starts January in south east Gemini and crosses Cancer during much. of the month before passing into southern Leo for most of February It then glides through. southern Virgo during March Probable ANT ZHRs will be 2 although IMO analyses of. 4 IMO INFO 2 17, visual data have suggested there may be an ill defined minor peak with ZHRs 2 to 3 around. 286 293 2018 January 6 to 13 ZHRs could be 3 for most of March with a slight. increase derived from video flux data around 355 2018 March 17. Weak meteor activity may occur on March 20 at 22h 21m UT associated with the minor planet. 2016BA14 as forecast by Regina Rudawska The radiant of these very slow meteors V. 17 km s should be at 90 50 so will be visible from southern latitudes only. Observations are needed to confirm activity and hence the association. The list of possible events of Peter Jenniskens from 2006 includes a possible encounter with. the 1 revolution trail of comet C 1907 G1 on March 31 at 11h47m UT 10 463 with an. uncertainty of 1 hour at least The radiant is far south at 309 60 Unfortunately. this occurs at full Moon but nevertheless it is worth to check whether and when there is any. activity detectable as it may help us to improve our understanding of stream evolution. On 2015 January 10 at 02h 50m UT radar and video data showed a short outburst of the. Cancrids 793 KCA radiant at 138 9 at 289 315 Activity was also. found in the 2016 video data Molau et al 2017 Although there are no visual data available. yet observers are encouraged to check especially the period around 2018 January 09 21h UT. for possible activity The radiant of the Antihelion source centre is at 122 19. i e roughly 20 southeast and the KCA meteors V 47 km s are faster than the ANT. Expected approximate timings for the daytime shower maxima this quarter are. Capricornids Sagittariids 115 DCS February 1 16h UT and Capricornids 114 DXC. February 13 17h UT Recent radio results have implied the DCS maximum may fall variably. sometime between February 1 4 however while activity near the expected DXC peak has tended. to be slight and up to a day late Both showers have radiants 10 15 west of the Sun at. maximum so cannot be regarded as visual targets even from the southern hemisphere. Ursae Minorids 404 GUM, Active January 10 22 Maximum around January 18 298 ZHR 3. Radiant 228 67 Radiant drift see Table 6,V 31 km s r 3 0. IMO INFO 2 17 5, Little is yet known about this minor shower which has been detected in video and visual data. recently Considering the velocity meteors from this far northern radiant should be similar to the. Ursids in their appearance All data about the activity period and shower parameters should be. treated as tentative and need further confirmation New Moon on January 17 provides excellent. conditions for all observational efforts,Centaurids 102 ACE. Active January 31 February 20 Maximum February 8 07h UT 319 2. ZHR variable usually 6 but may reach 25,Radiant 210 59 Radiant drift see Table 6. V 58 km s r 2 0, The Centaurids are one of the main southern summer high points from past records supposedly. producing bright even fireball class objects The average peak ZHR between 1988 2007 was. merely 6 though WB p 18 albeit coverage has frequently been extremely patchy Despite. this in 1974 and 1980 bursts of only a few hours duration apparently yielded ZHRs closer to. 20 30 Significant activity was reported on 2015 February 14 airborne observation although. there was no confirmation of an outburst predicted for 2015 February 8 Hence further data is. needed to obtain information about the structure and extension of the stream Based on video. data the given activity period is slightly shortened compared to the previous editions The. shower s radiant is nearly circumpolar for much of the sub equatorial inhabited Earth and is at. a useful elevation from late evening onwards This year the maximum period falls just after last. quarter Moon so is favourable for dark sky coverage increasingly later in the night. Normids 118 GNO, Active February 25 March 28 Maximum March 14 354 ZHR 6. Radiant 239 50 Radiant drift see Table 6,V 56 km s r 2 4. For most of their activity Normid ZHRs seem to be virtually undetectable above the back. ground sporadic rate The maximum itself has been reported as quite sharp and an analysis of. IMO data from 1988 2007 showed an average peak ZHR of 6 at 354 with ZHRs 3. on all other dates during the shower HMO pp 131 132 Results since 1999 have suggested. the possibility of a short lived peak alternatively between 347 357 equivalent to 2018. 6 IMO INFO 2 17, March 8 18 Recent video and visual plotting information confirmed activity from that region. but a new analysis of video data obtained only from locations south of the equator has indicated. that the activity occurs preferentially around March 25 4 instead from a radiant at. 246 51 Post midnight watching yields better results when the radiant is rising to a. reasonable elevation from southern hemisphere sites the radiant does not rise for many northern. ones Moonlight circumstances are very favourable for any of the potential peak timings this. year with an early setting waxing Moon new on March 17. GNO Mar 10,4 April to June, Meteor activity increases towards the April May boundary particularly caused by optically. unobservable showers The Lyrid 006 LYR maximum has little moolight interference but. the Puppids 137 PPU are less fortunate with the visibility of the waxing gibbous Moon. coinciding with when their radiant is suitable above the horizon during the evening for southern. latitude observers The known peak position of the PPU is reached near 0h UT on April 24. A waning gibbous moon full on April 30 last quarter on May 8 will badly affect optical obser. vations of the Aquariids 031 ETA this year with their peak due on May 6 Nevertheless. it is recommended to record the activity research initiated by an investigation of ETA observa. tions back in the Maya period by Hutch Kinsman shows a slight enhancement on May 3 centred. at 19h 11m UT 43 042 due to a Jovian 1 8 resonance of the 164 BC trail of the parent. comet 1P Halley The particles would be small Further there are three solutions for May 5. due to a 1 8 Jovian resonance of the comet s AD 218 trail The first occurs at 05h 49m UT. 44 441 the second occurs at 07h 34m UT 44 511 and the third at 07h 35m UT. 44 512 All of these particles would be small Perhaps the combination of the latter. two enhancements would have the best chance of being seen under good circumstances and the. direct moonlight shielded, Moonlight also affects the Lyrids 145 ELY with an expected peak on May 9 or slightly. later The June Bootids 170 JBO produced unexpected activity in 1998 and 2004 This. year their likely peak periods around June 23 outburst and annual video data or June 27. outburst only are unhelpfully moonlit with full Moon on June 28 At least there are currently. no known predictions for rate enhancements based on model calculations in force for 2018. IMO INFO 2 17 7, According to analyses of visual and video IMO data the ANT should produce ZHRs between. 2 and 4 with insignificant variations There may be a rather slow increase towards end May. followed by a decrease into July The radiant area drifts from south east Virgo through Libra. in April then across the northern part of Scorpius to southern Ophiuchus in May and on into. Sagittarius for much of June,ANT Mar May,20 Jul 10 30 20 Jun 10 30 20 May 10 30 20. ANT May Jul, Daytime showers In the second half of May and throughout June most of the annual meteor. action switches to the daylight sky with several shower peaks expected during this time For. radio observers the expected UT peak times for these showers are as follows. April Piscids 144 APS April 22 22h,Arietids 154 DEA May 9 15h. May Arietids 294 DMA May 16 16h,o Cetids 293 DCE May 20 15h. Arietids 171 ARI June 7 16h more details see page 9. Perseids 172 ZPE June 9 18h,Taurids 173 BTA June 28 17h. 8 IMO INFO 2 17, Signs of most were found in radio data from 1994 2008 though some are difficult to define. individually because of their proximity to other radiants The maxima of the Arietids and. Perseids tend to blend into one another producing a strong radio signature for several days in. early to mid June The shower maxima dates are not well established and may occur up to a day. later than indicated above There seems to be a modest recurring peak around April 24 as well. perhaps due to combined rates from the first two showers listed here and possibly the Piscids. which we previously listed for many years as having a peak on April 24 although the IAU seems. not to recognise this currently as a genuine shower Similarly there are problems in identifying. the o Cetids in the IAU stream lists despite the fact this possibly periodic source was detected. by radar more strongly that the Aquariids of early May when it was first observed in 1950 51. The current number and abbreviation given here for it is actually for the IAU source called the. Daytime Cetid Complex because that seems a closer match to the o Cetids as defined by. earlier reports,Lyrids 006 LYR, Active April 14 30 Maximum April 22 18h UT 32 32 but may vary see text. ZHR 18 can be variable up to 90,Radiant 271 34 Radiant drift see Table 6. V 49 km s r 2 1, The 32 32 timing given above is the maximum position found in IMO results from 1988. 2000 However the maximum time was variable from year to year between 32 0 32 45. equivalent to 2018 April 22 10h to April 22 21h UT Activity was variable too A peak at. the ideal time produced the highest ZHRs 23 while the further the peak happened from. this the lower the ZHRs were down to 14 The last very high maximum was in 1982 when. a short lived ZHR of 90 was recorded The mean peak ZHR was 18 over the thirteen years. examined Further the shower s peak length varied using the Full Width Half Maximum time. the period ZHRs were above half the peak level a variation between 14 8 to 61 7 hours was. detected mean 32 1 hours The best rates are normally achieved for just a few hours even. so The analysis also confirmed that occasionally as their highest rates occurred the Lyrids. produced a brief increase in fainter meteors,IMO INFO 2 17 9. For 2018 there are no predictions for any activity increase from theoretical modelling Lyrid. meteors are best viewed from the northern hemisphere but are visible from many sites north. and south of the equator As the radiant rises during the night watches can be carried out. usefully after about 22h 30m local time from mid northern sites but only well after midnight. from the mid southern hemisphere Moon s first quarter on April 22 leaves just the morning. hours undisturbed Based on video data we give a slightly extended activity period for the. Lyrids There were several reports particularly from the end of April including recognizeable. numbers of shower meteors,Daytime Arietids 171 ARI. Active May 14 June 24 uncertain Maximum June 07 76 6. Radiant 44 24 Radiant drift see Table 6,V 38 km s r 2 8. The radiant is located only about 30 west of the Sun but despite that a few optical observations. have been repeatedly reported from it in the past However its low radiant elevation by the. time morning twilight is too bright means the number of shower meteors recorded by individual. video or visual observers is always low Consequently an ongoing IMO project to pool data on. the shower using all techniques was initiated in 2014 to combine results from many independent. observing intervals even those periods which contain few or even no ARI meteors The currently. available video data do not show a clear profile but a recognizable activity level over a week or so. Hence all contributions for this project will be most welcome Since both the correction factor. for radiant elevation and the observing conditions change rapidly in the approach to morning. twilight in early June it is recommended that visual observers break their watches into short. intervals of the order of about 15 minutes determining the limiting magnitude frequently. for each interval Observers at latitudes south of about 30 N are better placed because of the. significantly poorer twilight conditions further north in June. 10 IMO INFO 2 17,5 July to September, The ANT is the chief focus for visual attention during most of July as its radiant area moves. steadily through eastern Sagittarius then across northern Capricornus into southwest Aquarius. Results suggest that ZHRs for most of the month should be 2 to 3 The large ANT radiant area. overlaps that of the minor Capricornids 001 CAP in July August but the lower apparent. velocity of the CAP allows observers to separate the two The Southern Aquariids 005. SDA are strong enough and the Piscis Austrinids 183 PAU have a radiant distant enough. from the ANT area that both should be more easily separable from the ANT particularly from. the southern hemisphere Full Moon on Jul 27 will badly affect the period of highest rates from. these southern radiants which are due on July 27 PAU and July 30 CAP SDA respectively. SDA Aug 05,10Aug 05 30 20,30 25 20 15,15Jul 10 20,Jul 10 Jul 05. New Moon on August 11 provides optimal conditions for observations of the Perseids 007. PER before and around the peak This also holds for the first part of the minor Cygnids. 012 KCG Later conditions are poor to check the Aurigid 206 AUR peak on September 1. as last quarter Moon is not until September 3 There are no predictions for known activity. enhancements in 2018 from this source A week or so later and the better activity of the. September Perseids 208 SPE is much more favourable for any possible peculiarities this. On 2016 July 28 at 00h 07m UT a remarkable outburst ZHR probably of the order of 100 of. the July Draconids 184 GDR was detected by radar and video observations Molau et. al 2017 The same position is reached again on 2018 July 28 near 12h 30m UT well worth a. check whether something is observable around this time despite the lunar circumstances The. radiant is at 280 51 and the meteors have medium speed V 27 km s. In 2015 several video data sets showed low rates had persisted essentially throughout September. identified as originating with the Cygnids 757 CCY A weak maximum was found on. September 14 15 ZHRs about 2 or 3 The shower was also suspected in previous years but. at a lower activity level hence further observations would be useful First quarter moon on. September 16 provides good conditions for optical observations to improve our knowledge of this. minor source The radiant of these very slow meteors V 19 km s is at 300 31. For convenience we have included the radiant drift in Table 6. IMO INFO 2 17 11, Calculations by Je re mie Vaubaillon hint at a possible activity on September 20 13h 24m UT. from a radiant at 327 77 i e in northwestern Cepheus about halfway between. and Cephei The meteors are associated with the minor planet 2009 SG18 and should enter. the Earth s atmosphere at 34 km s This is an occasion where data is needed to confirm the. link and the activity at all, Visual and imaging observers are encouraged to catch some Daytime Sextantids 221 DSX. in the pre dawn of late September to early October Most parameters of the shower are yet un. certain The full Moon on September 25 adds little to the problem with poor limiting magnitude. due to the twilight as the radiant is roughly 30 west of the Sun As with the Arietids both. the radiant elevation correction and the observing conditions change rapidly as morning twilight. approaches Hence visual observers should report their data in short intervals no longer than. about 15 20 minutes, Remember that the Southern Taurids 002 STA begin around September 10 effectively. taking over the near ecliptic activity from the ANT through to December. For daylight radio observers the high activity of May June has waned but there remain the. Leonids 203 GLE peak due near August 25 17h UT albeit not found in recent radio results. and the Sextantids 221 DSX see above,Perseids 007 PER. Active July 17 August 24 Maximum August 12 20h to 13 08h UT node at 140 0. 140 1 but see text ZHR 110,Radiant 48 58 Radiant drift see Table 6. V 59 km s r 2 2, IMO observations see WB pp 32 36 found the timing of the mean or traditional broad. maximum varied between 139 8 to 140 3 equivalent to 2018 August 12 20h to August. 13 08h UT The orbital period of the parent comet 109P Swift Tuttle is about 130 years The. Perseids produced strong activity from a primary maximum throughout the 1990s Enhanced. activity was last observed in 2016 with additional peaks due to passages through separated dust. trails Such peaks are not to be expected for the 2018 return Instead a possible encounter. with a Perseid filament is announced for August 12 around 20h UT 139 79 by Peter. 12 IMO INFO 2 17, Jenniskens The filament is thought to be an accumulation of meteoroids in a mean motion. resonance Observations are needed to see what is detectable around this position which is. right at the start of the given peak period An additional potential enhancement due to a. very old dust trail on August 13 at 01h 37m UT found in computations by Je re mie Vaubaillon. may give only negligible rates anyway thus could easily pass unnoticed within the normal main. maximum period Visual observers should break their reports into short intervals no longer. than 15 minutes for both rate and magnitude data for the entire period this way allowing to. search for signatures of the trail and filament respectively. New Moon on August 11 provides perfect conditions for all optical observations Sites at mid. northern latitudes are more favourable for Perseid observing as from here the shower s radiant. can be usefully observed from 22h 23h local time onwards gaining altitude throughout the night. Regrettably the shower cannot be properly viewed from most of the southern hemisphere. Cygnids 012 KCG,Active August 3 25 Maximum August 18 145 ZHR 3. Radiant 286 59 Radiant drift see Table 6,V 25 km s r 3 0. The Cygnids showed enhanced activity in 2014 and 2007 Apart from these events the general. ZHR level seems to increase in the recent years from an apparent dip in the period 1990 2005. However the currently available data do not confirm a periodic activity variation in the visual. activity range and for 2018 there are no available predictions suggesting further peculiarities. may occur VID suggested a number of discrepancies to the currently accepted parameters listed. above including that the peak might happen closer to August 14 and that activity might be. present only from August 6 19 overall The shower is best observed from northern hemisphere. sites from where the radiant is easily available all night The radiant has been found to be. rather complex with several sub centres around the predicted position extending towards the. constellations of Draco and Lyra Due to their low velocity visual shower association may be. possible tying individual meteors to these sub radiants Consequently observers should be aware. that the shower may not behave as it is supposed to. IMO INFO 2 17 13,September Perseids 208 SPE, Active September 5 21 Maximum September 9 16h UT 166 7 and possibly. September 9 19h UT 166 8 see text ZHR 5,Radiant 48 40 Radiant drift see Table 6. V 64 km s r 3 0, New Moon on September 9 provides excellent observing conditions for this primarily northern. hemisphere shower The radiant area is well on view all night from about 22h 23h local time. for mid northern locations This shower produced outbursts of swift bright meteors on 2008. September 9 between roughly 166 894 166 921 and another bright meteor event with a. very sharp peak at 167 188 in 2013 Esko Lyytinen s modelling has suggested the next. really impressive SPE return may not be before 2040. Assuming a long period cometary orbit roughly 1000 year period and based on the timing of. the two recent events with the 2013 considering closest to the potential parent orbit Mikiya. Sato s calculations hint at a possible outburst on 2018 September 09 19h 12m UT 166 801. which although difficult to estimate may be comparable to the above mentioned events. 14 IMO INFO 2 17,6 October to December, During the last quarter of the year many of the more significant showers are observable under. good lunar conditions as detailed below The less well placed shower peaks include those of. the Leonis Minorids 022 LMI on October 24 the November Orionids 250 NOO on. November 28 the Phoenicids 254 PHO on December 2 the weak Comae Berenicids 020. COM on December 16 and the December Leonis Minorids 032 DLM on December 20. The ANT starts the quarter effectively inactive in favour of the Taurids resuming only around. December 10 as the Northern Taurids fade away from a radiant centre that tracks across. southern Gemini during later December likely producing ZHRs 2. The lost comet 3D Biela should theoretically reach perihelion at the end of 2018 A weak. return of the Andromedids which now appear as December Cassiopeids 446 DPC. is possible in early December according to work of Paul Wiegert and colleagues back in 2012. A return of this source in 2008 the ZHR equivalent was estimated at 30 was detected in. CMOR radar data The radiant should be at 18 56 and meteors are extremely. slow V 16 km s, The Monocerotids 246 AMO on November 21 and the Ursids 015 URS on December. 22 are also badly affected by moonlight but both would benefit from monitoring in 2018 The. AMO may show a peak at November 22 around 00h 50m UT from modelling by Mikiya Sato. using a 1 revolution trail of a long periodic object which suggested possible activity in all. years between 2016 and 2019 In 2016 the radio data indicated a probable AMO peak The. prediction for 2018 hints at a lower rate than in 2016 The 2017 event is still to come as. this Calendar was being written which may give further clues for events in 2018 Despite the. unfavourable moonlight conditions the expected maximum interval should be carefully checked. for any unusual activity On December 22 around 19h 20h UT according to Peter Jenniskens. the Earth may encounter an URS filament of meteoroids in a mean motion resonance Any. unusual activity recorded around this time despite the bright Moon needs reporting to try to. confirm this,October Camelopardalids 281 OCT, Active October 5 6 Maximum October 6 03h 30m 192 58 ZHR 5. Radiant 164 79 Radiant drift negligible,V 47 km s r 2 5 uncertain. IMO INFO 2 17 15, Short lived video outbursts were first recorded in 2005 and 2006 on October 5 6 near 193. from this north circumpolar radiant The shower has been detected annually Molau et al. 2017 and produced a peak at 192 58 repeatedly with an estimated ZHR of about 5. Enhanced activity was found last on 2016 October 5 at the predicted position at 14h 45m UT in. radio forward scatter data and video camera data from Finland. Assuming a long period parent and using the 2005 outburst as reference point we might see. similar activity on 2018 October 06 02h 16m UT 192 529 Both the recurrent maximum. given in the box and the calculated position are favourable for observers at European longitudes. and occur close to new Moon,Draconids 009 DRA, Active October 6 10 Maximum October 9 00h 10m UT 195 4 but see text. Radiant 263 56 Radiant drift negligible,V 21 km s r 2 6. The Draconids are primarily a periodic shower which produced spectacular brief meteor storms. twice last century in 1933 and 1946 and lower rates in several other years ZHRs 20 500. Most detected showers were in years close to when the stream s parent comet 21P Giacobini. Zinner returned to perihelion The next perihelion will be on 2018 September 10 Recent. outbursts happened in 2011 October ZHR 300 under bright moonlight then and wholly. unexpectedly on 2012 October 8 chiefly very faint meteors detected primarily by the Canadian. CMOR meteor radar system Outlying maximum times from the recent past have spanned. from 195 036 in 2011 equivalent to 2018 October 08 15h 30m UT through the nodal. passage time above to the end of a minor outburst in 1999 at 195 76 not a perihelion return. year but ZHRs reached 10 20 equating to 2018 October 09 08h 50m UT. Mikiya Sato has found an approach of the Earth to the comet s 1953 dust trail This trail was. slightly disturbed when it approached the Earth in 1985 As a consequence the dust should be. spread somewhat but could still produce recognizeable rates By comparison to the 2011 return. of the 1900 dust trail a ZHR in the range 20 50 may be expected on October 9 00h 14m UT. 195 406 Modelling the Draconids using recent ephemeries from JPL Je re mie Vaubaillon. noted a possible maximum on October 8 at 23h 31m UT instead 195 374 with a ZHR of.